هل تدخل الولايات المتحدة النفق المظلم بعد قفزة الديون؟
النشرة الدولية –
قطار الديون الأمريكية لا يتوقف بل في تزايد مستمر، فأرقام وزارة الخزانة الأمريكية تأتي كل شهر لتحمل زيادة جديدة وعبء إضافي على كاهل أكبر اقتصاد في العالم.
وبحسب بيانات الحكومة الأمريكية فإن إجمالي الدين العام في الولايات المتحدة وصل إلى مستوى قياسي جديد بنهاية 11 فبراير الجاري إلى 22.01 تريليون دولار، وهو أعلى مستوى منذ الحرب العالمية الثانية.
وعلى أساس سنوي قفز الدين العام الأمريكي بنحو تريليوني دولار، حيث كان قد سجل مستوى 20.6 تريليون دولار في 12 فبراير من عام 2018.
وفي العام الماضي فقط زاد الدين العام الأمريكي 1.5 تريليون دولار.
وينقسم هذا المبلغ الضخم بين أموال الحكومة الفيدرالية مدينة بها لنفسها، والأموال المدينة بها الحكومة لكافة الجهات الأخرى.
والنوع الأول معروف باسم الديون الحكومية وهي في الغالب ما تدين به الخزانة إلى صناديق مثل الضمان الاجتماعي، وهي أقل إثارة للقلق.
أما النوع الثاني فهو الدين التي يحتفظ به العامة، وهو ما يمكن أن يؤثر على الاقتصاد من خلال تأجيج التضخم أو مزاحمة الاستثمارات الخاصة.
وفي الوقت الحالي تبلغ الديون العامة الأمريكية 16.17 تريليون دولار أي ما يعادل 76% من الناتج الإجمالي المحلي، أما الديون غير الحكومة فتبلغ قيمتها 5.86 تريليون دولار.
وبذلك وصل إجمالي الدين العام الأمريكي إلى الناتج الإجمالي المحلي إلى مستوى 80%.
وعلى الرغم من وجود دول لديها معدلات دين للناتج الإجمالي المحلي أعلى كاليابان وإيطاليا واليونان إلا أن المعدل الأمريكي يظل مرتفعاً، حيث أن واشنطن أنفقت في 2018 نحو 325 مليار دولار صافي فوائد على الديون، مع توقعات أن يقفز هذا الرقم إلى 383 مليار دولار في العام الجاري ويصل إلى 928 مليار دولار في 2029.
وتلك القفزة في معدل الديون الأمريكية ليست الأولى من نوعها، حيث أنه في فترة رئاسة باراك أوباما زاد الدين الأمريكي من 11.1 تريليون دولار إلى 19.85 تريليون ولار، وإن كان بهدف تحسين الاقتصاد بعد الركود الذي حدث في أعقاب الأزمة المالية العالمية.
كما أن الرئيس جورج دبليو بوش قاد زيادة الديون من 5.77 تريليون دولار إلى 11.1 تريليون دولار، وذلك في غمار حربه داخل العراق.
أما السبب وراء ارتفاع الديون في عده ترامب، فتتنوع بين حزمة تحفيز الاقتصاد عبر برنامج الخفض الضريبي، حيث أن هناك تقديرات بأن ذلك البرنامج سيضيف 1.9 تريليون دولار زيادة إلى الديون الوطني.
كما زاد الكونجرس الإنفاق على البرامج العسكرية والمحلية في مشروع قانون الإنفاق الذي تجاوز 1.3 تريليون دولار.
وليس ذلك فقط، فإن عدد السكان المسنين ارتفع ما استلزم زيادة الإنفاق على الرعاية الصحية، وزيادة الأعباء على الضمان الاجتماعي.
هل تلك الزيادة تشكل خطراً على الاقتصاد الأمريكي؟
تشير وجهة نظر تاريخية أن زيادة ديون أكبر اقتصاد في العالم ليس أمراً مخيفاً على نحو كبير، نتيجة للدور الذي يلعبه الدولار في النظام المالي العالمي، وذلك فإن الولايات المتحدة يمكنها تقترض بشكل أساسي حسبما تريد وعند معدلات فائدة منخفضة للغاية.
ولكن في الوقت نفسه يرى آخرون أن تلك المستويات من الديون يمكنها أن تهدد الاقتصاد أثناء الدورات الهبوطية المستقبلية وأن فترة النمو الاقتصادي الراهنة هي أفضل وقت للسيطرة على الأمور.
والولايات المتحدة تدفع فوائد على الديون وترتفع تلك المدفوعات كلما تزايدت الديون حتى لو استقرت معدلات الفائدة عند نفس مستوياتها، ولذلك فإنه من المتوقع على مدار السنوات القليلة المقبلة أن تزيد مدفوعات الفائدة بوتيرة متسارعة وتصل لمستويات غير مسبوقة منذ التسعينات.
ووفقاً لبيانات الحكومة الأمريكية فإنه سيتم إنفاق مبالغ على فوائد الدين أكثر من التي يتم إنفاقها على برامج الزرعة والصناعة أو حتى برامج الرعاية الصحية للفقراء.
ويعتبر زيادة الاقتراض في فترات الأداء الاقتصادي القوي أمراً خطيراً، حيث أن الولايات المتحدة تقلل خيارتها المتاحة في الدورة الاقتصادية الهبوطية المقبلة، ومع وجود جزء كبير من الميزانية الفيدرالية المخصصة لدفعات الفائدة، فإن ذلك يترك مجالاً أقل للإنفاق الآخر.
وهناك جانب آخر من الضرر قد يقع على عاتق الولايات المتحدة من جراء هذه الديون، ولكن هذا الضرر ليس من حيث الفوائد أو تراكم الديون ولكن عدم قدرة الولايات المتحدة على الاستفادة من هذا الدين، بحسب تقرير لشبكة “سي.بي.إس”.
ويدلل الاقتصاديون على وجهة نظرهم هذه بعقد مقارنة بين الإنفاق على بنية تحتية يستلزم معه ضخ المال وتغذية التوظيف والتجارة أو حتى وضع بعض المال لدى مقاول، وبين الإنفاق على الفوائد الذي لا يؤدي إلى أي شيء من هذا القبيل بل هو مجرد تغطية تكاليف القرارات التي اتخذت من فترة طويلة مضت.
كما أن للاقتراض الحكومي في أكبر اقتصاد بالعالم آثاره السلبية على الإنفاق الخاص، حيث أنه كلما زادت النقود التي تقترضها الحكومة كلما زاد الضغط على الاقتراض الخاص.
ويقول ويليام غيل المدير المشارك لمركز السياسة الضريبية وكبير زملاء معهد بروكينغز، إن اقتراض المزيد يرفع الطلب على القروض وبالتالي الحكومة تتنافس مع الشركات والطلاب وأي شخص في السوق على القروض.
وتابع أنه في حالة أن أرادت الحكومة اقتراض المزيد فإن ذلك يرفع من معدلات الفائدة على كل شخص آخر.
وعلى الجانب الآخر، يقول كيث هول وهو مسئول في شركة “سي.بي.أو” أن الأمر لايزال يستحق رفع الديون في حالة كان ما تنفقه الحكومة من الأموال يولد عوائد اقتصادية أكبر من تكلفة الائتمان.
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With contributions by John Piper, Patrick Reyntiens, Johannes Schreiter and Robert Sowers.
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DP-1: Profile of General Demographic Characteristics: 2000 – Census 2000 Summary File 1 (SF 1) 100-P.c Knowledge for Bordentown city, Burlington County, New Jersey, United States Census Bureau.
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Relying on the wielder’s control, the sword will take the shape of whatever the wielder needs of it.
Are you able to describe for us the greatest sense of satisfaction you’ve had about this CD since it is release?
Checkbook IRAs are compatible with all IRA retirement plans.
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They are at all times there to knock at your door until the time you open it.
Clients recognize the value of the towels.
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This variation is referred to by Eric Schiller in Unorthodox Chess Openings.
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Wire transfers — also called a bank wires — are a relatively trouble-free option to ship cash online.
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Can the resin patches on the backside of the Irani Firoza gemstone have an effect on its efficacy?
Bordentown Regional Middle School, Bordentown Regional College District.
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Nick Bilton (April 26, 2013).
The dividend is a portion of the company’s profit that it distributes to its shareholders as a kind of compensation in the form of cash or stock.
Treasuries again. A short history: 10-year U.S.
Winifred Honeyman, Assistant Chief Welfare Part Officer, Civil Defence Corps, North Riding of Yorkshire.
Ando, Albert & Franco Modigliani (1965) “The relative stability of financial velocity and the funding multiplier”, The American Financial Overview, 55.4, pp.
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Queen Elizabeth covered any losses or debts owed by the East India Company with the royal coffers; modern LLCs are subject to bankruptcy procedures, where creditors may be forced to take pennies on the dollar or nothing at all if a corporation goes under.
For our functions, we’ll deal with the center layer of the hair, which includes coiled bundles of keratin proteins.
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Towing a lot weight could cause a myriad of issues, irrespective of how massive and powerful your engine is.
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The other of those strategies can be utilized to reply to alternatives (unsure future states with benefits).
DP-1: Profile of Basic Demographic Characteristics: 2000 – Census 2000 Abstract File 1 (SF 1) 100- Data for Bordentown metropolis, Burlington County, New Jersey, United States Census Bureau.
Even the most mild-mannered kids get antsy or yell out funny phrases from time to time.
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People have faith in exchanges to get and sell their cryptocurrencies, which needs a particular amount of trust placed in this establishment.
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Without heating, the sound waves simply vibrate the tissue cells like those of the muscles, tendons or ligaments.
39.) Dippy video game villain and reoccurring Easter egg, the Dopefish, is known widely on this planet of video video games as “the second dumbest creature in the universe.” When Tom Corridor originally created the Dopefish for the fourth installment of the Commander Keen collection, he referred to it as the “second dumbest” because as all good Information readers know, the dumbest creature within the universe is the Ravenous Bugblatter Beast of Traal.
To assist adorn the bride, there are exclusive designs that come from different a part of India.
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Talks Will Fail””. NDTV.
207. Two ladies stand in a drawing room.
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And, because of the tomato’s versatility, there are loads of ways to make it the co-star of any plated affair.
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Flagstaff Arts and Management Academy, Pine Forest Charter School, Basis Flagstaff (ranked No.
So some market and economic volatility might be anticipated as this process unfolds, but we’re nicely ready for this.
During subsequent rounds, sisters meet potential new members in-particular person.
The Sunday session will be held together with the Deland Comedian & Collectibles Show.
Dual agency: This means that one agent – or two agents from the same company – represents both the buyer and the seller.
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