هل تدخل الولايات المتحدة النفق المظلم بعد قفزة الديون؟
النشرة الدولية –
قطار الديون الأمريكية لا يتوقف بل في تزايد مستمر، فأرقام وزارة الخزانة الأمريكية تأتي كل شهر لتحمل زيادة جديدة وعبء إضافي على كاهل أكبر اقتصاد في العالم.
وبحسب بيانات الحكومة الأمريكية فإن إجمالي الدين العام في الولايات المتحدة وصل إلى مستوى قياسي جديد بنهاية 11 فبراير الجاري إلى 22.01 تريليون دولار، وهو أعلى مستوى منذ الحرب العالمية الثانية.
وعلى أساس سنوي قفز الدين العام الأمريكي بنحو تريليوني دولار، حيث كان قد سجل مستوى 20.6 تريليون دولار في 12 فبراير من عام 2018.
وفي العام الماضي فقط زاد الدين العام الأمريكي 1.5 تريليون دولار.
وينقسم هذا المبلغ الضخم بين أموال الحكومة الفيدرالية مدينة بها لنفسها، والأموال المدينة بها الحكومة لكافة الجهات الأخرى.
والنوع الأول معروف باسم الديون الحكومية وهي في الغالب ما تدين به الخزانة إلى صناديق مثل الضمان الاجتماعي، وهي أقل إثارة للقلق.
أما النوع الثاني فهو الدين التي يحتفظ به العامة، وهو ما يمكن أن يؤثر على الاقتصاد من خلال تأجيج التضخم أو مزاحمة الاستثمارات الخاصة.
وفي الوقت الحالي تبلغ الديون العامة الأمريكية 16.17 تريليون دولار أي ما يعادل 76% من الناتج الإجمالي المحلي، أما الديون غير الحكومة فتبلغ قيمتها 5.86 تريليون دولار.
وبذلك وصل إجمالي الدين العام الأمريكي إلى الناتج الإجمالي المحلي إلى مستوى 80%.
وعلى الرغم من وجود دول لديها معدلات دين للناتج الإجمالي المحلي أعلى كاليابان وإيطاليا واليونان إلا أن المعدل الأمريكي يظل مرتفعاً، حيث أن واشنطن أنفقت في 2018 نحو 325 مليار دولار صافي فوائد على الديون، مع توقعات أن يقفز هذا الرقم إلى 383 مليار دولار في العام الجاري ويصل إلى 928 مليار دولار في 2029.
وتلك القفزة في معدل الديون الأمريكية ليست الأولى من نوعها، حيث أنه في فترة رئاسة باراك أوباما زاد الدين الأمريكي من 11.1 تريليون دولار إلى 19.85 تريليون ولار، وإن كان بهدف تحسين الاقتصاد بعد الركود الذي حدث في أعقاب الأزمة المالية العالمية.
كما أن الرئيس جورج دبليو بوش قاد زيادة الديون من 5.77 تريليون دولار إلى 11.1 تريليون دولار، وذلك في غمار حربه داخل العراق.
أما السبب وراء ارتفاع الديون في عده ترامب، فتتنوع بين حزمة تحفيز الاقتصاد عبر برنامج الخفض الضريبي، حيث أن هناك تقديرات بأن ذلك البرنامج سيضيف 1.9 تريليون دولار زيادة إلى الديون الوطني.
كما زاد الكونجرس الإنفاق على البرامج العسكرية والمحلية في مشروع قانون الإنفاق الذي تجاوز 1.3 تريليون دولار.
وليس ذلك فقط، فإن عدد السكان المسنين ارتفع ما استلزم زيادة الإنفاق على الرعاية الصحية، وزيادة الأعباء على الضمان الاجتماعي.
هل تلك الزيادة تشكل خطراً على الاقتصاد الأمريكي؟
تشير وجهة نظر تاريخية أن زيادة ديون أكبر اقتصاد في العالم ليس أمراً مخيفاً على نحو كبير، نتيجة للدور الذي يلعبه الدولار في النظام المالي العالمي، وذلك فإن الولايات المتحدة يمكنها تقترض بشكل أساسي حسبما تريد وعند معدلات فائدة منخفضة للغاية.
ولكن في الوقت نفسه يرى آخرون أن تلك المستويات من الديون يمكنها أن تهدد الاقتصاد أثناء الدورات الهبوطية المستقبلية وأن فترة النمو الاقتصادي الراهنة هي أفضل وقت للسيطرة على الأمور.
والولايات المتحدة تدفع فوائد على الديون وترتفع تلك المدفوعات كلما تزايدت الديون حتى لو استقرت معدلات الفائدة عند نفس مستوياتها، ولذلك فإنه من المتوقع على مدار السنوات القليلة المقبلة أن تزيد مدفوعات الفائدة بوتيرة متسارعة وتصل لمستويات غير مسبوقة منذ التسعينات.
ووفقاً لبيانات الحكومة الأمريكية فإنه سيتم إنفاق مبالغ على فوائد الدين أكثر من التي يتم إنفاقها على برامج الزرعة والصناعة أو حتى برامج الرعاية الصحية للفقراء.
ويعتبر زيادة الاقتراض في فترات الأداء الاقتصادي القوي أمراً خطيراً، حيث أن الولايات المتحدة تقلل خيارتها المتاحة في الدورة الاقتصادية الهبوطية المقبلة، ومع وجود جزء كبير من الميزانية الفيدرالية المخصصة لدفعات الفائدة، فإن ذلك يترك مجالاً أقل للإنفاق الآخر.
وهناك جانب آخر من الضرر قد يقع على عاتق الولايات المتحدة من جراء هذه الديون، ولكن هذا الضرر ليس من حيث الفوائد أو تراكم الديون ولكن عدم قدرة الولايات المتحدة على الاستفادة من هذا الدين، بحسب تقرير لشبكة “سي.بي.إس”.
ويدلل الاقتصاديون على وجهة نظرهم هذه بعقد مقارنة بين الإنفاق على بنية تحتية يستلزم معه ضخ المال وتغذية التوظيف والتجارة أو حتى وضع بعض المال لدى مقاول، وبين الإنفاق على الفوائد الذي لا يؤدي إلى أي شيء من هذا القبيل بل هو مجرد تغطية تكاليف القرارات التي اتخذت من فترة طويلة مضت.
كما أن للاقتراض الحكومي في أكبر اقتصاد بالعالم آثاره السلبية على الإنفاق الخاص، حيث أنه كلما زادت النقود التي تقترضها الحكومة كلما زاد الضغط على الاقتراض الخاص.
ويقول ويليام غيل المدير المشارك لمركز السياسة الضريبية وكبير زملاء معهد بروكينغز، إن اقتراض المزيد يرفع الطلب على القروض وبالتالي الحكومة تتنافس مع الشركات والطلاب وأي شخص في السوق على القروض.
وتابع أنه في حالة أن أرادت الحكومة اقتراض المزيد فإن ذلك يرفع من معدلات الفائدة على كل شخص آخر.
وعلى الجانب الآخر، يقول كيث هول وهو مسئول في شركة “سي.بي.أو” أن الأمر لايزال يستحق رفع الديون في حالة كان ما تنفقه الحكومة من الأموال يولد عوائد اقتصادية أكبر من تكلفة الائتمان.
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With contributions by John Piper, Patrick Reyntiens, Johannes Schreiter and Robert Sowers.
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Treasuries again. A short history: 10-year U.S.
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We’ve come a long way when it comes to communicating by phone, as we’ll discuss next.
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